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Recession: Nigeria’s economy improved in 2016 – NBS

By on March 2, 2017

Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) contracted by -1.30 per cent in the final quarter of 2016, indicating a gradual narrowing of the nation’s recession.

The GDP report for the fourth quarter of last year released yesterday by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) indicated that the economy recovered by -1.66 per cent from three previous quarter contractions in 2016, from -0.36 per cent recorded in the first quarter to -1.30 per cent in the late quarter.

Though Nigeria recorded a contraction in the fourth quarter of 2016, it was less severe than the decline recorded in the previous quarter, of -2.24 per cent, but was nevertheless lower than the growth rate recorded in the final quarter of 2015 of 2.11 per cent.

A day prior to the release of this report, the Secretary General of the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), Dr Mohammed Barkindo, predicted an end to the global recession resulting from falling price of crude oil at the international market.

Barkindo said the worst days of economic recession were over while addressing a news conference organised by the Minster of State for Petroleum, Dr Ibe Kachikwu, on Monday.

The gradual reversal of the recession is driven by increase in volume of oil production and rise of oil price in the international market.

The price of oil has seen a rise, trading from below $40 per barrel at the first quarter of 2016 to $55.40 per barrel as at yesterday.

However, the international price of crude oil brent is still fluctuating as the commodity fell from $56.16 it traded on Monday to $55.40 per barrel yesterday.

In the last quarter of 2016, oil production was estimated at 1.90 million barrels per day (mbpd), being 0.27 million barrels per day higher than production in the previous quarter, but lower than production in the same quarter of 2015 by 0.25million barrels per day, when output was recorded at 2.16 mbpd.

For the full year 2016, oil production was estimated to be 1.833mbpd, compared to 2.13mbpd in 2015.

Analysis showed that the non-oil sector increased its share of GDP to 92.85 per cent, from 91.94 percent in the fourth quarter of 2015.

For the full year 2016, GDP contracted by -1.51%, indicating real GDP of N67.98 trillion for the year.

“This contraction reflects a difficult year for Nigeria, which included weaker inflation induced consumption demand, an increase in pipeline vandalism, significantly reduced foreign reserves and a concomitantly weaker currency, and problems in the energy sector,” the NBS stated in the report.