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Analysts predict higher inflation figures for December

By on January 13, 2015

Analysts at the FSDH Group have estimated that the December 2014 consumer price index (CPI), which is used to gauge the level of inflation in the country, will rise to 8.4 per cent.

Inflation rate for November 2014 was 7.9 per cent, which was lower than 8.1 per cent recorded in October 2014.

The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) is expected to release the inflation figures for December 2014 this week.

The NBS had put the monthly Composite Consumer Price Index (CCPI) for All-Items in November at 163.1 points, an increase of 0.59 per cent from October 2014.

 

The CCPI 12-month average for November 2014 also remained unchanged from that of October 2014 at eight per cent.

But a report by the FSDH Group at the weekend showed that an analysis of the average prices of a basket of consumer goods selected from across the country it had monitored, showed mixed reactions in the prices of essential food items during the period.

It stated that food items such as rice, tomatoes, beans, sweet potatoes, vegetable oil and fish recorded increase of eight per cent, 8.33 per cent, 6.67 per cent, 2.08 per cent, 10 per cent, and 2.99 per cent respectively.

However, the prices of garri, onions, yam, Irish potatoes and palm oil, recorded decreases of 6.52 per cent, 5.83 per cent, 7.14 per cent, 4.29 per cent, and 4.55 per cent respectively, while meat prices remained unchanged.

“The movement in the prices of food items in December 2014 resulted in 1.5 per cent increase in our Food and Non-Alcoholic Index to 168.92 points. We also noticed an increase in the prices of alcohol, beverages, tobacco and kola, transport, and housing, water, electricity gas and other fuel between November and December 2014. ”

“Our model indicates that the price movements in the consumer goods in December 2014 would increase the Consumer Price Index (CPI) to 165.05 points, representing a month-on-month increase of 1.20 per cent,” it added.

In addition, the report predicted that the inflation rate for January 2015 would to be higher than the December 2014 figure.

This NBS had explained that the decrease in the inflation rate in November 2014 was due to the slower growth in food prices as well as other divisions that yield the Headline Index. The prices in the food sub-index during the month were weighed down by slower increases in the prices of all food groups, with the highest price increases occurring amongst: coffee, tea, cocoa, fish, dairy, and fruit groups.

 

[ThisDay]