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China may become largest energy importer by 2035 – BP

By on January 20, 2014

China is expected to exceed Europe to become the largest energy importer in the world by 2035, said a report issued by British oil giant BP.

The annual Energy Outlook 2035 report released on Wednesday forecast global energy consumption to grow by 41 per cent from 2012 to 2035, slower than the growth of 55 per cent during the 1989-2012 period.

Of the global energy consumption growth, 95 per cent is expected to come from emerging economies, while the energy consumption in developed countries will slow down, ecns.cn reported on Friday.

According to the report, China’s energy production will rise 61 per cent by 2035 while consumption will grow by 71 per cent. China’s share in global demand rises from 22 per cent to 27 per cent in 2035, and its import dependence will rise from 15 per cent to 20 per cent.

“China’s energy mix continues to evolve with coal’s dominance declining from 69 per cent to 52 percent and natural gas doubling to 12 per cent with oil unchanged around 18 per cent,” the report said.

It predicted China to overtake the United States as the world’s largest oil consumer by 2027 and Russia as the world second largest gas consumer by 2025, only after the United States.

For fast growth of energy consumption, the report held that energy consumed by transport will surge 120 per cent, the fastest among all the sectors.

Oil remains the dominant fuel but loses market share, dropping from 90 per cent to 82 per cent in 2038 while gas share increases from five per cent to 12 per cent, the report read.

Share of shale gas of China and North America will increase to 81 per cent by 2035, according to the report.

BP chief executive Bob Dudley expressed confidence that energy production will be able to keep pace thanks to the trends in global technology, investment and policy.

Dudley said new energy forms such as shale gas, tight oil, and renewables will account for a significant share of the growth in global supply.

“Energy efficiency promises to improve unabatedly, driven by globalisation and competition,” he said.

 

[Punch]