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Analyst predicts 7.5 % inflation for September

By on October 14, 2013

Ahead of official statistics expected next week, the FSDH Research has predicted an inflation rate (year-on-year) of 7.5 per cent for September, representing a 70 basis points decrease from August 2013.

The expected inflation rate of 7.5 per cent in September will be the lowest inflation rate since December 2007.

Looking into October, “we expect inflation rate to drop below 7.5 per cent.

This was the outcome of an analysis of the average prices of a basket of consumer goods that FSDH Research monitored across the country in September which showed that the prices of some components of the basket increased over August levels.

However, according to the report, there were decreases in the prices of Garri, Tomato, Irish Potato, Sweet Potato, Palm Oil and Meat, with the average prices of the items dropping by 2.78 per cent, 1.62 per cent, 14.07 per cent, 4.17 per cent, 5.59 per cent and 3.33 per cent respectively between August and September.

Even so, there were increases in the average prices of Yam, Onions, Beans, Vegetable Oil and Fish by 29.68 per cent, 6.67 per cent, 7.54 per cent, 3.33 per cent and 0.93 per cent respectively during the period.

Meanwhile, the price of rice remained stable between the two months, the survey indicated.

“ The general increase in the prices of food items in September resulted in 0.30 per cent increase in our Food and Non-Alcoholic Index to 149.29 points. We also noticed an increase in the prices of Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas and Other Fuels, Health and Transportation between August and September,” the report noted.

“Our model indicates that the price movement in the consumer goods in September would increase the Consumer Price Index (CPI) to 148.34 points, representing a month-on-month increase of 0.36 per cent. The increase in the CPI in September will produce an inflation rate (year-on-year) of 7.5 per cent, representing a 70 basis points decrease from August 2013,” it added.

 

 

[Daily Independent]